TOGGLE Insight: CVS:NYSE - CVS Health Corp.

Even before COVID times, CVS Pharmacy has been a backbone to this country: providing medication, vaccinations and even free rapid tests (even though you had to pre-book in major cities). After they teamed up with Target, CVS seemed to be unstoppable. For a company that has historically beaten its earnings, next week’s Q4 earnings hopefully won’t be a disappointment as revenues have been driven by the growth in COVID vaccinations and testing. If the company is to release positive earnings, where could we see the stock going next? Could this be the catalyst we need for a bull run?

TL;DR Recently, on February 1st, TOGGLE published an insight about $CVS, showing that analyst expectations are low. Based on CVS’s historic performance, TOGGLE’s AI identified that this may lead to a median increase of 10% over the following 6M, as shown in the chart below. This insight got a 6 out of our 8-star rating system (more on that later)

How did TOGGLE come up with this? TOGGLE uses the power of machine learning and artificial intelligence to analyze data and turn it into easy-to-read insights that you can use to help your decision-making. For this particular insight, TOGGLE's AI analyzed 10 similar occasions in the past to help identify this insight's median projection and confidence band.

The dotted line you see is the expected path, which is based on similar instances in the past. The shaded area represents a confidence band, and CVS's price typically stays within those boundaries if the asset performs like it did in the past. The flat, solid green line indicates where TOGGLE expects the asset to reach. Last but not least, the flat red line is a possible stop-loss level, the point at which $CVS has deviated too far from the expected path and you should reevaluate your position.

**How reliable are these insights? ** Well, that's up for you to decide. TOGGLE uses an 8-star rating system, which evaluates the same stats that institutional investors like to look at when managing money professionally. We ask questions that determine if these conditions have happened before, how accurate they've been, and how frequent they've occurred, and more. This insight received a 6 out of 8 on our star rating system (as seen below), and this encompasses the robustness of the relationship between the driver and subsequent price action.

While crunching the numbers, TOGGLE also studied CVS’s analyst expectations and detected a consistent relationship between the driver and CVS’s subsequent asset movement. The chart below highlights the times in the past when the driver (specifically CVS’s forward BV/s and EBITDA) was at a similar level as right now. For this insight, TOGGLE’s AI identified 10 different times, or “episodes,” when a similar set-up has happened in the past. Of those episodes, TOGGLE found that ~80% of those resulted in an upward move over a 6M horizon, which helped form this insight.

**So, how do I use this info? ** Ultimately, what sets TOGGLE apart is that when it comes to investing, we won’t tell you what to do, but we’ll be here to give you the fullest picture to help you trade with confidence. We recommend reading the full insight here to get the complete picture, and better guide your decision-making.