Daily Brief - Friday Edition (Dec 10, 2021)

The 10 days ahead: TOGGLE Leading Indicator

The TOGGLE Leading Indicator is the aggregated indicator of all TOGGLE insights for stocks in the US market

Last week we pointed out how the TLI had hinted at strong bullish action - in counterpoint to the deep drawdown taking place in US markets. The indicator ultimately proved correct highlighting the trough of the market around Dec 1st.

Currently the indicator remains in positive territory.

Guide to reading this dashboard

• Top chart: SPX overimposed over colouring based on the TLI, blue = bullish and red = bearish
• Bottom-left chart: orange area chart is the 2-week change in price of the S&P 500, dark grey line is the TOGGLE leading indicator, shifted to the right by 2 weeks
• Bottom-right chart: same as the bottom left but in scatter format, with the current level of the TLI shown as a dashed orange line

Important disclaimer: you can see for yourself that the correlation between the TLI and SPX was far from 1:1, so use at your own discretion. Past performance is not indicative of future returns!

Upcoming at TOGGLE

Every week we’ll be sharing a sneak peek of exciting new feature releases.

A sneak peek of our new website

A new website is going to merge app functionalities with those pages open to the public web. In particular, we’re going to publish a revamped educational section with hundreds of new articles to cover every topic - from fundamentals to option investing.

General Interest - Is COVID seasonal?

Every week we endeavour to bring you one high quality article post from around the internet, of general interest.

If you live away from the equator, you are used to influenza being a seasonal affair. People get cold during Q4-Q1 in the north hemisphere, and Q2-Q3 in the southern one.

Here’s a chart showcasing this effect in the US.

However, COVID has followed a more complicated path, mostly due to lockdowns and vaccination policies.

So what can one expect going forward?

There is evidence that COVID is transitioning to a semi-seasonal structure. This article in Nature shows an interesting flowchart of factors that will determine if COVID will fizzle out or become an endemic seasonal flu - with differing severities.

If you find this topic interesting, head over to a very comprehensive review found on Astral Codex Ten’s substack channel. The specific article is Diseasonality.